IT前沿

如何游戏化地将区块链带给大众?

在区块链领域中,虽然许多技术元素已经融入主流,但仍存在一种神秘的氛围。人们对区块链将作为未来创新的平台加以讨论,但随即又承认他们不太清楚它是如何运作的。尽管在2017年筹集了56亿美元的资金,但很多讨论中心都围绕着ICO是否稳定和健全的问题展开。

这清楚地表明区块链技术正处于一个交叉路口。作为货币和数据交易平台的引擎,它已经足够稳定,不再需要概念验证的例子。然而,它所需要的,是所谓的杀手级应用,将技术带给大众,在简化的同时构建一条使用的渠道,而无需从本质上理解其背后的错综复杂之处。有了这些,平台就会发展起来,并且会变得更受信任,更容易被试验和扩展,而不需要在后台进行持续的检查。

但是那个杀手级应用是什么?将区块链这个流行词转换成日常用语的临界点是什么?作为一名行业老手,我在离开我上一家公司时考虑了这个问题。为这款应用程序提供支持的可能性有很多,从比特币等数字货币到ICO,任何与赚钱相关的事情都很明显是候选项目之一。(在某种程度上,你可以说比特币是区块链的第一个杀手级应用。)另一种可能性是“自我主权”的概念,它提供了一个人与机构的身份,而并非依靠政府机构(护照、驾驶执照等)。

我意识到,像数字货币、ICO和身份验证之类的话题都十分重要,虽然如此,但对普通人来说也不是很有趣。一个杀手级应用的目标不是覆盖所有人每一天的日常生活吗?对于我个人而言,所有这些沉重的话题都耗尽了我对科技的热情——我需要一些有趣的东西来重新点燃我对这个行业的激情。

甚至比猫咪视频(Cat Videos)更好

我遇到了一只猫(这是一只虚拟的猫,来自一种叫“加密猫(Cryptokitties)”的游戏)。Cryptokitties很可爱,很容易捡到并且很有趣——用户培育出独一无二的数字小猫,并将它们放在市场上被领养和收藏。每只猫都是唯一的创造物,永远作为记录保存在支持Cryptokitties的区块链上。这款游戏的动力是ERC721,这是一种新的代币标准,允许用户创造独一无二的数字资产,只要市场愿意,它就能以任何价格出售。(Adam Smith会为此感到骄傲。)在这个标准下,每项资产都可以被赋予独特的特性,从而影响它与其他资产交互的方式。

对外行来说,可能不会太在意这个标准的细节。然而,这种方式可能很容易被普通大众所接受:这是一款游戏,你可以创造出100%独一无二的虚拟猫,除非你想要出售它们——而且你可以让它与其他虚拟猫一起繁殖,创造出更多100%的独一无二的猫。

需知的要素有:

唯一且不可变的代币(100%独一无二的虚拟猫)

永久记录(除非你想出售)

影响它与其他资产交互的独特特征(与其他虚拟猫一起繁殖)

成为主流的有趣方式

加密技术的简便性(在用户的交互中,以及超越区块链/数字货币讨论的方式中)都让我大吃一惊。令人难以置信的是,尽管它的用户界面过于简单,但它却让用户创建了钱包,使用了数字货币,并采用了某种形式的主权身份。它凸显了真正突破主流的一个想法:最重要的乐趣因素。

Cryptokitties是区块链的杀手级应用,它会将这项技术带入主流吗?在以太坊上,在大量的交易需求之中,它肯定比其他任何东西都更受欢迎。这是一个长期稳定性的问题,因为在出乎意料的大范围普及化之后,Cryptokitties难以再扩大规模。因此,未来的数字技术是不确定的,尽管这当然是第一步。

然而,它展示了一个杀手级应用的渠道,无论是基于猫的还是其他的。它应该是简单的,演示一个只有区块链的模型(例如,独一无二的Cryptokitties的个人所有权),并且足够有趣,就可以吸引一个普通的用户。物联网(IoT)的安全连接或数字货币的去中心化稳定性对现实世界提供了更多切实的影响,与此同时,游戏化也以一种功能应用程序永远无法实现的方式与公众联系起来。这是娱乐软件而并非商业软件推动技术进步的原因。

区块链将带来的下一个创举是什么?没有人确切知道答案,但我确信它将以一种优雅而有趣的方式呈现游戏化特征。

滴滴外卖正式上线 美团为什么有些慌?

4 月 10 日,滴滴方面宣布,在试运营 8 天后,滴滴外卖在 4 月 9 号正式上线无锡,首日订单突破 33.4 万单,在无锡市场份额已经位居第一。随后不久,美团方面就发布海报称,滴滴的“第一”是设计出来的情节,美团才是稳居无锡外卖市场份额第一名的公司。

这不是双方在舆论层面的第一次交锋,此前美团在南京和上海等城市上线打车业务时,也曾经宣布拿下市场高位份额,大有针对滴滴的意味。

那么,既然滴滴已经打出外卖的反击牌,能不能用同样的方式搅乱美团的“后院”?从资金、技术和前人经验三个维度来看,形势对美团并不乐观。

  现金流的比拼

目前来看,滴滴做外卖和美团做打车,都是通过降低佣金抽成和推出高额补贴来获得商户、司机和用户,只是目前双方的针锋相对都发生在个别城市,而并非北上广深全面铺开,所以烧钱大战的色彩还不浓烈。

但如果补贴大战全面拉开,谁的现金流更充沛健康就尤为重要。

根据 IT 桔子不完全统计,自滴滴 2012 年成立以来,滴滴已经完成了 16 轮融资。此前 15 轮融资一共涉及 35 个投资机构及个人,融资额总计超过 200 亿美元。

在 2017 年 12 月的最新一轮融资中,滴滴拿到了 40 亿美元的资金,按此计算滴滴账面的现金储备超过 120 亿美元。

与之对应的是美团,上一轮 40 亿美元融资在 2017 年 10 月,此前 5 月美团曾宣布盈亏平衡,现金储备 30 亿美元,也就是说满打满算,美团在收购摩拜前拥有 70 亿美金左右的现金储备,27 亿美元收购摩拜后,美团账面现金储备不会超过 50 亿美元。

简单对比现金流,滴滴超过美团两倍基本不成问题。

如果再考虑到,美团目前的战线已经拉长到了外卖、团购、酒店、旅游、票务、打车等主流业务,以及部分到家服务和生鲜电商业务,在没有任何业务(对,是“任何”)已经成为业内第一的情况下,现金流的支配必然会受到牵制。

如何平衡美团各条业务线的投入;如何在出行补贴大战和即将上市的压力下,保证核心业务不被其他公司“偷袭”;如何说服投资人支持美团砸钱挑战滴滴,都是充满变数的问题。

  打车公司做外卖优势明显

滴滴染指外卖的想法其实早已有之。早在 2015 年 11 月,滴滴就曾参与饿了么的融资,并在董事会获得一席。

通常外卖配送的范围都比较近,很多配送员并不需要导航,只要在自己的配送范围,他们经常能驾轻就熟的找到用户写字楼和居民楼地址。

而滴滴这样的出行企业则掌握有大量的出行数据,在路线规划方面的基础也要好于外卖企业,哪怕是做“闪送”类型的服务,也拥有得天独厚的技术优势。

此外,考虑到大多数商家在百度外卖、美团和饿了么的教育下,已经对多外卖终端接入保持了积极态度,滴滴做外卖也不需要花费大量精力教育商户,只要投入人力和资金地推即可。

那么滴滴做外卖唯一需要解决的,就是配送员的招募。

出于成本考量,滴滴司机兼职做外卖送餐员可能性不大,滴滴选择了骑手招募的方式。根据公开信息显示,滴滴外卖骑手分为忠诚骑手和自由骑手两类,其中无锡地区忠诚骑手要求是每周在线大于 48 小时,月保底薪资可达到 10000 元。

从公开的招聘平台信息可知,目前北京地区的外卖送餐员的工资底薪约在 4000 左右,保底月薪 7000-8000 元,滴滴给配送员的待遇远超过这个。

而用户在外卖领域的“低忠诚度”更是由来已久,在商户同质化严重的情况下,谁提供的配送服务更好,谁的补贴更多,用户当然就会倒向谁。

在这方面,背靠阿里巴巴的饿了么恐怕是最有钱的,它也是美团外卖最直接和最大的竞争对手。

正如前述所说,如果美团拿出大量资金补贴出行业务,基本等于从外卖业务那里“釜底抽薪”,拆东墙补西墙。在外卖领域格局未定的情况下,减少投入几乎是帮助竞争对手稳固老大地位的“自杀式”做法。

这类抉择在领域曾经出现过一次,结果就是爱奇艺取代优酷成为老大。如今美团跟滴滴硬碰硬,饿了么也能轻松“坐收渔翁之利”。

  国外早有成功先例

如果把目光投向国外,出行公司做外卖配送已经有了相当成功的案例,UberEats 就是最好的证明。

这款应用在 2016 年 1 月上线,Uber 推出的独立的送餐应用,发布时仅仅准备在美国十个城市进行推广。而目前为止,Uber 已经在超过 200 个城市上线了其外卖服务 UberEats。

截止到 2017 年年底,UberEats 业务在上述 200 座城市中的 45 个实现了盈利。在去年第四季度,UberEats 业务为公司贡献了 10%,也就是 11 亿美元的总收入。

基于上个季度的优异表现,2018 年 3 月,UberEats 表示正计划在欧洲、中东和非洲再拿下 100 个新城市,以期在欧洲、中东和非洲价值 280 亿美元的食物配送市场占有更大份额。

去年底成为 Uber 最大股东的软银集团也公开表示,“Uber 应该重视 UberEats 业务”。

这一切滴滴和背后的投资人都看在眼里,做外卖也是水到渠成的事情,只是时间早晚问题。

既然现在美团挑起了战争,而滴滴坐拥大量现金储备无法转化为收益,那么砸钱迎战美团,顺便做起一块市场同样巨大的新业务,也可以算一箭双雕的选择。

毕竟如果去美国上市,华尔街对业务空间想象力的渴望,要远大于账面收益的那几个数字。

搜狗副总裁吴滔:搜狗AI翻译的进击之路

近日,第二十一届中国北京国际科技产业博览会在北京举行。在5月19日上午举办的中国科技创新论坛上,阿里、百度、搜狗等互联网公司的高管围绕”人工智能与智能经济”主题进行了探讨交流。会上,搜狗公司副总裁、IoT事业部负责人吴滔分享了搜狗的AI布局与在AI翻译领域的探索与思考。

专注于语言 搜狗AI技术引领行业发展

在演讲中,吴滔首先介绍了搜狗以语言为核心的AI布局,“从产品层面讲,搜狗是一家围绕语言的输入和输出为核心的公司,所以我们在AI的布局也是以语言为核心,包括听觉和视觉的感知,在感知基础上,我们希望将产品发展为对话、问答,并通过翻译实现跨语言交流”。

聚焦于语言,搜狗近年来在语言AI技术方面取得了不俗的成绩。计算机视觉领域,搜狗在今年国际顶级赛事Pascal VOC中,刷新了一项目标检测任务的世界纪录;国内自然语言处理最权威的2018NLPCC比赛中,搜狗的语义理解技术斩获第一;问答对话方面,搜狗在国际重要赛事2017 NTCIR评测比赛短文本对话任务中获得第一;机器翻译领域,搜狗不仅独创了基于神经网络的机器翻译技术,还在国际顶级机器翻译比赛WMT2017中获得了中英和英中双向翻译冠军。

依托领先的语言AI技术,搜狗正在将输入法升级为对话系统,搜索升级为问答系统,帮助用户更方便地表达与获取信息。搜狗输入法一直在探索与搜狗搜索相结合的产品形态,2016年上线的“智能分享”功能,让用户在聊天场景下可在输入法内搜索信息并快速分享,而无需跳转出聊天应用。此外,搜狗还推出了汪仔机器人、搜狗立知、搜狗答题助手等问答类产品,其中搜狗的答题助手在今年年初大热的直播答题中,帮助大量用户完成答题,被公认为最值得信赖的“答题辅助神器”。

在多项技术保持行业领先的情况下,搜狗正持续推动AI技术实用化。吴滔分享到,AI翻译将成为搜狗重要的发力领域,搜狗希望让用户跨语言表达与获取信息更简单。

进军AI翻译,搜狗成AI翻译市场领军者

从软件到硬件,搜狗正在全面布局AI翻译,并已推出多款产品,吴滔表示:“软件方面,搜狗已经把翻译技术大量融入产品中,包括输入法、搜索、浏览器,同时还推出了翻译APP,机器同传。硬件方面,搜狗已经推出了搜狗旅行翻译宝和搜狗录音翻译笔,后续还会有1到2款新产品推出。”

搜狗目前支持包括语音翻译、文字翻译、图像翻译等最丰富的交互方式,每日收到超过1.4亿次翻译请求,覆盖超过1000万用户。而搜狗旅行翻译宝等AI翻译硬件也在消费者市场受到热捧。搜狗旅行翻译宝首发当时即售罄,销售额破千万,成该品类销量黑马。搜狗录音翻译笔首发当日即售罄,被称为“录音笔时代终结者”。在科博会上,搜狗旅行翻译宝成为现场黑科技代表登陆央视新闻。

针对搜狗旅行翻译宝引发的市场反响,吴滔分享了搜狗在AI硬件落地方面的思路与经验。他认为,聚焦出境游场景,虽然市面上已有的翻译机能解决一部分语言沟通障碍,但这些产品并未解决游客希望“听得懂”和“看得懂”的真实痛点。而搜狗旅行翻译宝的两大创新恰好能解决这一问题。“一,翻译宝是业界第一个做到完全离线的翻译机器,同时识别准确度跟在线基本一致”,能够保证机器在没网情况下,也能给出媲美在线水平的翻译结果,让国人能听懂别人的说话内容。“二是OCR翻译,翻译宝也是第一个做到OCR翻译的翻译机,因为我们很多人即使有翻译机,遇到事情还是希望能不问别人尽量自己搞定,在这种情况下,拍照翻译就非常重要了,在你需要了解商品信息等情况下,直接拍照就可以获得”,保证用户能看懂外文信息。

领先的AI技术加持,再加上丰富且备受市场认可的AI落地产品,搜狗正成为AI翻译领域的领军人物。吴滔认为,语言不仅是文化的载体,也是人们沟通交流的工具。“如果大家学习语言是为了跟别的国家的人进行更好交流的话,这部分以后交给我们搜狗就可以了。”随着像搜狗这样的公司不断用AI等技术帮助解决生活中的问题,相信未来,在前沿技术的加持下,我们的生活也会变得更加便利和幸福。

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